by Cameron Scott, June 10, 2011

boy sleeping surrounded by waterIn its newly released 2011 State of the World's Children report, UNICEF positions climate change as the single greatest threat to youth worldwide, and in another report, the international body says that climate-related disasters threaten the success of the Millennium Development Goals that are core of the international humanitarian agenda.

It's the non-controversial group's first serious foray into climate politics. Children will be most affected by climate change, and the poor children for whom UNICEF primarily advocates are especially vulnerable to extreme weather events like the Biblical-scale floods in Pakistan in 2010.

The reports take note that young people absolutely believe climate change is real and important, but UNICEF primarily lobbies for a "child-centred" approach to adapting to climate change (in an eponymously titled report) — in other words, it calls for us to brace ourselves strategically against the punishment Mother Nature is fixing to dish out.

The rationale has a more optimistic and a more pessimistic version. Optimistically, it appeals to our better nature to spare those who aren't at fault and who "are at greater risk of injury and suffer disproportionately from disease as water, sanitation and food security are threatened." (The picture of a boy sleeping amid the Pakistani flood waters is heavy emotional stuff.)

Reading between the lines, however, the report is basically asking us to put children first into the limited lifeboats we will have to confront climate change because it's the best use of our economic resources.

Indeed, it comes close to saying that bailing the children out is our best hope for survival as a species:

Children are one of the largest groups at risk from climate change. Therefore, measures that specifically target this group have the potential to reduce the impacts of climate change across a large proportion of the population, and may realise economies of scale. Importantly, child led measures develop skills across a large segment of the population and over a longer time period.

In the U.S., our debate is still deadlocked on whether or not we should reduce emissions — but it's realistically all but too late for prevention. Quietly, even controversy-averse groups like UNICEF are starting to force the choice among harsh cures.

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by Cameron Scott, June 09, 2011

LEED buildingFox News is reporting that a new study suggests that green building standards are bad for your health. But the real story is a bit more complicated. In a study commissioned by the EPA, the Institutes of Medicine analyzed the effects climate change may have on people inside, where they spend most of their time.

The IOM found that climate change will cause more people to use air conditioning, which can generate indoor air pollution. It will spur pests to infect new regions; as their stomping grounds grow, so will indoor pesticide use, which is harmful to your health. Extreme weather — as the Minnesota Vikings learned — can destroy buildings outright, which is rather dangerous. Even when buildings survive, precipitation can lead mold, cockroaches and other allergens to thrive, posing problems for people who suffer from asthma or other respiratory problems.

Amid all of the possible barriers to healthy indoor environments that come directly from climate change (with a supporting role played by toxic materials already in wide use), there was one possible effect that comes  indirectly via weatherization efforts.

In the process of reducing energy use, retrofits can sometimes reduce ventilation, increasing exposure to existing indoor air pollutants. The IOM suggests that standards for ventilation that "account for the effects of weatherization" be developed and that workers performing retrofits be trained to recognize and manage potential problems. Green building has also brought some new materials into broader use, and the IOM notes that the EPA should monitor to make sure they aren't hazardous.

Retrofits that focus narrowly on energy savings may decrease ventilation, but LEED standards as a whole call for less toxic materials and more natural ventilation, meaning that on balance they will improve indoor air quality.

Of course, all new techniques deserve scrutiny, and it's good to see the EPA thinking a few steps ahead.

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by Cameron Scott, June 03, 2011

ImageThe environmental situation in China has gotten alarmingly bad, according to news reports and, most tellingly, a statement from the Chinese government itself. 

Cancer is now the leading cause of death in the Asian country; it's linked to one in four deaths nationwide. Lung cancer is the most common form.

Although more than half the men in China smoke tobacco (less than 3 percent of the women do), the data points to air and water pollution as major causes of the cancer epidemic.

There are cancer clusters in the small towns and cities that house the country's major industries.

Coal-fired electricity is responsible for 70 percent of the soot that darkens China's skies and two thirds of the country's nitrogen oxide pollution, an ingredient of harmful ground level ozone.

New studies document that if the air pollution controls instituted, due to international pressure, before and during the Beijing Olympics were made permanent, they could reduce residents' hydrocarbon inhalation-related cancer risk by nearly half.

In rural areas, lung cancer is less dominant. Liver, lung and stomach cancers each accounts for about one fifth of cancer deaths. A Chinese farmer's risk of liver cancer is more than three times the worldwide average. Rural Chinese people die of stomach cancer at twice the global average. Both types of cancer are linked to consumption of polluted water. 

According to the Chinese government itself, half of the country's rivers and more than three out of of four lakes and reservoirs are too polluted to provide safe drinking water even after treatment. But those waters nonetheless supply huge numbers of people.

The government has also acknowledged that its ambitious Three Gorges dam has contributed to low water levels in two of China's biggest freshwater lakes at a time when large areas of central and southern China are suffering from the worst drought in 50 years. Crops have been destroyed.

In one of the bitter ironies climate change presents, the Three Gorges dam — contentious since it was first built, displacing more than a million people — was threatened last summer by too much rain. Even as they acknowledge its problems, Chinese officials continue to assert that the dam's electricity-generation justifies its environmental effects. 

This is what economic growth without environmental regulation looks like. And apparently it's what the U.S. Republican Party, which continues to lobby aggressively to hamstring the EPA, would like to see in this country. 

To address its current drought, China is proposing to divert water from the Yangtze River to the north (which the New York Times' report compares to "channeling water from the Mississippi River to meet the drinking needs of Boston, New York and Washington") and forcibly relocate 350,000 peasants who depend on its waters to cities.

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by Cameron Scott, May 25, 2011

ImageThis spring, the U.S. has experienced the deadliest single tornado on record and the deadliest single day of tornadoes on record — and, no, they weren't the same event. Yesterday brought still more tornadoes and still more deaths.

But don't stop there: The Mississippi is flooding at near-record levels and Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas are experiencing a drought almost as bad as the one Steinbeck wrote about.

Here we are confronted with really dramatic weather of the sort climate change scientists and activists have warned us about — and yet the science isn't there yet to demonstrate that tornadoes, in particular, have become more severe and frequent as a result of the changing climate.

The media doesn't know how to handle that question in its reported pages, so it's kicking the conversation back to the op-ed section. Environmental journalist and activist Bill McKibben penned an op-ed for the Washington Post, in which he more or less accusing everyone who's not making the connection of burying their heads in the sand.

"It's far smarter," McKibben writes, with his tongue firmly in check, "to repeat to yourself the comforting mantra that no single weather event can ever be directly tied to climate change." He concludes:

It’s very important to stay calm. If worst ever did come to worst, it’s reassuring to remember what the U.S. Chamber of Commerce told the Environmental Protection Agency in a recent filing: that there’s no need to worry because 'populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of behavioral, physiological, and technological adaptations.' I’m pretty sure that’s what residents are telling themselves in Joplin today.

Where McKibben has been reduced to gallows humor by his long battle to push the government to get serious about the changing climate, the editorial board of the Charlotte Observer appeals to our common sense:

No one storm, drought or flood can be proof of global climate change…Weather varies; it takes decades for scientists to document trends. Yet climate scientists for years have warned that climate change will bring more extreme storms, more rain and more drought.

In spite of the complexity of the scientific process and the climate itself, the editors pose a simple choice: The federal government and its local counterparts can "Reject evidence of climate change or confront it, work to reverse it, and adapt."

While we may have led you to believe, dear reader, that we would offer a definitive answer to the question posed in this post's title, the truth is that it's a red herring to debate whether this event or that event could only have happened in Climate 2.0, as Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research has argued: The climate is changing, making extreme weather events more and more likely. The question isn't whether this tornado or that flood was caused by climate change — or even whether changes in the climate are caused by greenhouse gas emissions or millennial forces. The question is whether we're going to start preparing in earnest for the extreme weather events that are headed our way.

This spring's disasters show just how deadly Mother Nature can be, and how her temper tantrums can erode the economy as well. What more do we need to know?

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by Cristina Tirado, May 17, 2011

ImageApril was a cruel month in the United States — and the pain has continued into May. A record-breaking spate of 600 tornadoes ravaged much of the Midwest and South, killing 250 people and sending scores of thousands to emergency shelters. The same storms that fueled the twisters contributed to near-record floods along the Mississippi and feeder rivers.

Earlier this month, the Army Corps of Engineers made a controversial decision to dynamite a levee at the junction of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers to save the tiny town of Cairo, Ill., and ease flooding upstream. The move came at the cost of 90 houses and 100,000 acres of crops, for which the federal government will have to reimburse farmers. Hundreds of people have had to flee their homes in Memphis, Tenn., and Louisiana. 

The media has attempted levelheaded dissections of whether these natural disasters were or were not caused by climate change. But as Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research has argued, questioning whether isolated incidents were or were not caused by climate change misses the point: The climate is changing, and all weather events occur in the context of its increased variability. 

In 2010, FEMA declared a record 81 disasters, nearly tripling its 60-year average of 33. More than 380 people died and 1,700 were injured as a result of extreme weather events last year.

So, how will we cope with the spike in disasters? The answer is twofold: Do what we can to stop climate change from getting even worse, and — because we’ve already missed our chance to stop it altogether — invest in disaster risk reduction and preparedness plans. U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said just last week that “No development effort will be equitable or sustainable unless disaster and climate risk measures are a part of the picture.”

Local Governments for Sustainability, also called ICLEI, points to some ways to blunt the effects of the changing climate without contributing to its causes. To protect the sick, the young and the elderly from heat waves, for example, cities will need to provide cooling centers. These centers should use natural cooling systems such as trees to create shade wherever possible and run air conditioners on renewable energy from distributed power generation sources to reduce the chances of a blackout.

Of course, to get people to cooling centers or high-water shelters, we will need effective early warning systems. Yet few U.S. cities — much less cities in the developing world — have this cheap, essential program in place.

According to a 2010 Trust for America’s Health report, just 14 states earn scores of 9 or 10 out of 10 for their readiness to handle emergencies, including disease, disaster and bioterrorism. Instead of spending more to improve preparedness, most states and the federal government are cutting public health funding. 

But just as the Army Corps of Engineers is scrambling to manage levees on the Mississippi and FEMA has stepped in to help tornado and flood victims, when the extreme weather hits, we pay one way or another. A new report by the American Security Project shows systematically that it will cost more to address extreme weather events in such chaotic, ad-hoc ways than it will to start planning for changed weather patterns — and the mortality, injuries and ill health they bring with them — immediately. As the Secretary General pointed out, risk reduction planning is not a matter of spending more, but of using resources more wisely, such as early warning systems, public education and efficient land use planning.

A key part of our work at the Center for Public Health & Climate Change is to ensure that policymakers remember that human health ought to be the heart and soul of risk reduction and climate adaptation plans.

To learn more about preparing yourself as an individual for extreme weather events, both the American Public Health Association and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provide helpful information. 

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by Cameron Scott, May 16, 2011

ImageDown Under, they’re having a debate over whether addressing climate change will benefit, or rather jeopardize, human health. 

The Royal Australasian College of Medicine appears to have started it. The group supports the carbon tax Australia’s government is now considering. But, said RACM president John Kolbe, "The government needs to acknowledge that the rising prices and higher cost of living are known to lead to reduced health spending, with families cutting back on healthy food and medicine."

Kolbe was advocating something not unlike California’s Community Benefits Fund when he went on to explain “Any tax of (a) carbon reduction scheme must protect health in the short term as well as protect low-income earners where health expenditure is most at risk.”

He acknowledged that changing habits, such as walking more and driving less, leads to "really significant reductions in emissions" and simultaneously improves health. Nevertheless, the article ran under the headline “Doctors raise health impacts of carbon tax.”

Perhaps sensing an opportunity, Joanne Nova — the author of The Skeptic's Handbook and a former associate lecturer in science communication at the Australian National Universitypenned an op-ed alleging that the carbon tax will “kill people.”

Nova wrote:

While most scientists agree CO2 causes some warming, there is great debate about just how much. If CO2 has only a minor effect on temperature then spending, say, $1 billion on inefficient roof-top solar panels is not just wasted money, it's a choice that will kill people. We won't be able to say exactly who it will kill but we can virtually guarantee that some people will die in the future who could have been saved.

Why? Solar energy costs us more than five times what coal-powered energy does. So instead of spending $1 billion on solar panels, we could have spent $200 million on cheap electricity and used the other $800m to double our medical research budget.

Fiona Armstrong, the president of the Climate and Health Alliance, fired back:

Investing in research is of course vital, but suggesting we can't afford both medical research and climate action is like arguing we should only tackle mesothelioma by investing in research and do nothing about the mining and use of asbestos.

Armstrong notes that climate change already accounts for more than 300,000 people each year, and may cause 500,000 a year 10 years from now. Then she gets really specific:

The heatwave that preceded the Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria in 2009 saw a 62 per cent increase in mortality from heat-related illnesses and worsening chronic medical conditions.

Heat-related visits to emergency rooms increased eight-fold. Demand for ambulances during the heat wave was up by nearly half. Cardiac arrests and cardiac deaths both nearly tripled their normal rate, according to Armstrong.

These health outcomes are far more alarming than a few solar panels that don’t work.

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